Well I’d say time will tell. Back then NATO wasn’t pushing for their involvement. The Baltic states weren’t building 600 defensive bunkers on their borders and France hadn’t deployed troops to Romania. Again it’s only one indicator. We would need to see multiple other factors start to converge at the same time before we can know anything for certain. How many other units join the Tanks. What is their position, do they have full logistical support, is Belarus ramping up fuel and oil production, are they buying higher than normal levels of commodities, etc, etc. So yes, it is one of many indicators and it’s something to watch. Doesn’t mean it will happen now but it could start fairly soon if they were serious. We just have to be observant.
Just the usual "virtue signalling" by Belarus surely given the "numbers" involved once again. A "Show of force" in similar fashion to the military parades each year.
Well I’d say time will tell. Back then NATO wasn’t pushing for their involvement. The Baltic states weren’t building 600 defensive bunkers on their borders and France hadn’t deployed troops to Romania. Again it’s only one indicator. We would need to see multiple other factors start to converge at the same time before we can know anything for certain. How many other units join the Tanks. What is their position, do they have full logistical support, is Belarus ramping up fuel and oil production, are they buying higher than normal levels of commodities, etc, etc. So yes, it is one of many indicators and it’s something to watch. Doesn’t mean it will happen now but it could start fairly soon if they were serious. We just have to be observant.
Is this really an indicator?
Dec 2022
Belarus moves tanks to the border with Poland and Lithuania
https://news.yahoo.com/belarus-moves-tanks-border-poland-101354268.html
and
April 2023
Belarus deploys tanks to border with Lithuania
https://news.yahoo.com/belarus-deploys-tanks-border-lithuania-232826793.html
2 days go
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/belarus-deploys-equipment-and-troops-to-border-with-lithuania-details/ar-BB1jSJ7D
Just the usual "virtue signalling" by Belarus surely given the "numbers" involved once again. A "Show of force" in similar fashion to the military parades each year.